Markets were created to take money from the retail clients. That has been true since inception. Very rarely has the retail client made money in the forex markets.
Lets take a look at two of the pairs which are most positioned on the Oanda broker.
The oanda clientele is heavily long USDJPY and Short EURUSD. The USDJPY accounts for over 18% of all positions at the broker. Nearly 70% of all positions on USDJPY are long. Retail is long USDJPY.
The overstretched longs are visible on the dukas broker as well. It is a industry wide stat that all retail clients are going long USDJPY in a big way.
The EURUSD is a study of how shorts have been forced to cover. The shorts were more than 40% when price was at 1.1 but now shorts have covered as prices moved above 1.24. We see significant shorts still in play which will keep underpinning prices.
Historically, the USDJPY shows one of the highest ratio of longs over the last 1 year. Retail is heavily long on USDJPY as they expect fed hikes to boost dollar.
EURUSD short positions show that maximum shorts are under 1.2. At some point retail will throw in the towel and prices will move higher.