The Commerce Department reported that retail sales reversed three straight months of declines in March, rising 0.6% from the prior month thanks largely to a bump in auto sales.

While March’s gain exceeded economists’ expectations, it offered little evidence of a breakout in household outlays. Overall retail sales edged up 0.2% in the first quarter from the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, a holiday-sales period, they rose a more robust 2.5% from the prior quarter.

On the Chinese side, things are looking better. China’s economy expanded at a faster-than-expected 6.8% in the first quarter, bucking expectations for a slowdown, though flagging exports and factory output may prove a drag in the coming months.

Dollar Index: Sinking !

Dollar Index as noted before has pulled away from the horizontal resistance at 90.6. Now its well under 90 and we see falls to 88.9 this week.

USDJPY daily has stalled and lost momentum as expected above the 107.5 levels. It has fallen back to 107.05 and the green line at 50 DMA is the next target. We see 106.5 as next major destination. USDJPY will pay attention to Trump and Abe summit. However the pair is in a longer term downtrend targeting 103.

The 4h shows the break of the uptrend line at 107.1. The follow thru has been weak but lets wait and see if something develops.

Retail Positioning

The oanda retail positioning shows that retail clients are excessively long USDJPY and Short EURUSD. Our current trades and our analysis clearly point out how the retail clients are wrong footed and they will lose money.

The trade copier has been absolutely phenomenal in April trading. The system was offered from March and the returns continue to grow higher in April.

Our record since 2010 to 2018 has been a performance with no blemish and all months giving positive returns.
If you want to start a membership for a trade copier, please contact us: Contact us.


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