Volatility is waning
VIX weekly had turned bearish as it has not followed higher. This suggests that the fear in the market is now falling.
DJCI commodity index has been rising and not fallen with other markets. When the risk appetite returns, this will move to new highs and will add bullish pressure to AUD,CAD and NZD as currencies while all commodity stocks will move higher
DJCI bullish trends on weekly as the index is well above the 20 WMA.
EURUSD weekly formation remains similar. Very bullish flag formation which will extend higher to 1.26
AUDUSD weekly is at support of the weekly trendline at 0.7650. This is in line with the long term support and hence it is a good long
USDCAD turns down at trendline resistance at 1.3110 and is now turning down towards 1.27 levels.
S&P Bank ETF
Financial stocks, and banks in particular, have also lost ground during March. But it is critical support. The support is valid for over a week now and hence we conclude that bears have lost interest in clearing the support. Financials are the second biggest sector in the S&P 500 (behind technology). That's why it's encouraging to see banks and social media stocks starting to bounce together from underlying support levels. Until proven otherwise, technical odds favor those support levels holding.
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Summary: Markets are at support levels across sectors. The NYSE a/d line has recovered and we see a clear bounce in US equity markets and this will lead all equity markets worldwide. Commodities to pick up in April and this will help commodity currencies as well. Volatility is dipping as we start a new quarter, all of which is suggesting a good quarter for stocks.